Rupee set to climb amid arbitrage unwinding prompted by RBI position limits

The Indian rupee is poised to rally at the open on Monday amid arbitrage unwinding prompted by the central bank’s curbs on onshore ​position limits.

The Reserve Bank of India late Friday directed banks ‌to cap their net open rupee positions in the foreign exchange market at $100 million by the end of each business day, with compliance required latest by April 10.

The RBI’s curbs on onshore ​position limits are expected to lead to dollar selling by banks in ​the domestic foreign exchange market amid unwinding of existing arbitrage positions.

These ⁠arbitrage trades were built by buying dollars onshore and selling them in ​the NDF market to exploit the spread between the two segments.

This spread had widened ​significantly amid a pickup in volatility and the fall in rupee on heightened risk aversion and oil-driven pressures linked to the Iran war.

The size of such positions is estimated at $25 billion ​to over $50 billion.

The pressure on the rupee has been intense amid persistent portfolio ​outflows and mounting concerns over the impact of higher oil prices on India’s economic outlook.

The rupee ‌has ⁠dropped more than 4% in March through Friday, putting it on course for its worst monthly performance in more than seven years