Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to return for the third consecutive term in 2024 despite the INDIA alliance, according to a poll by India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation. The BJP-led NDA is likely to win 306 seats with a 43 per cent vote share, while the INDIA alliance is projected to get 193 with 41 per cent vote share. The BJP, on its own, is likely to cross the majority mark with 287 seats, 13 down from its 303 in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In 2019, the NDA had won 333 seats. 

The BJP’s vote share is likely to increase by 2 per cent to nearly 39 per cent. The Congress, too, will increase its vote share by two per cent to 22 per cent but its gap with the BJP is nearly 17 per cent. The vote share of other parties is likely to come down from 43 per cent to 39. The Congress is projected to increase its vote share by 22 seats to 74, which would be its highest since 2014. The other parties are likely to bag 182 seats.

The INDIA bloc is likely to gain in West Bengal and Bihar. In West Bengal, the alliance is expected to win 24 of 42 seats while NDA is projected to bag 18 – the same number of seats the saffron party had won in 2019. In Bihar, the INDIA alliance is likely to win 26 seats while NDA may bag 14. In the last election, the NDA had swept the state by winning 39 of 40 seats.    

The poll shows that the BJP may repeat its 2014 performance in Uttar Pradesh and bag 72 of 80 seats with nearly 49 per cent vote share. The INDIA alliance, which also has Samajwadi Party, may win only 8 seats with 38 per cent vote share. 

The majority of the respondents said that the opposition alliance INDIA would not be able to defeat the BJP. As per the survey, 54 per cent of the respondents thought that the INDIA bloc would not be able to defeat the BJP, while 33 per cent said it would. 

The opposition parties, which have so far held two meetings to chalk out plans for the next parliamentary elections, recently named their alliance INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance). Earlier, the Congress-led alliance was called UPA (United Progressive Alliance).

As per the survey, 39 per cent of the respondents said the name change may draw votes for the INDIA alliance, while 30 per cent it may not. From the opposition, Rahul Gandhi is most favoured to lead the INDIA alliance followed by West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Delhi counterpart Arvind Kejriwal.