Days before global leaders gather for the crucial climate talks at COP30 in Brazil, a stark new report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has delivered a wake-up call – there has been progress on cutting greenhouse gases, but not nearly enough to avoid a hotter, riskier future.

The 16th annual Emissions Gap Report paints a picture of a world inching forward on climate action yet hurtling toward temperatures that could unleash widespread floods, wildfires and food shortages. Think of it as a global report card: We’ve improved our grade slightly, but we’re failing the big test set by the 2015 Paris Agreement.

If every country fully delivers on their current climate pledges (known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs), the planet is projected to warm by 2.3–2.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. That’s down from last year’s estimate of 2.6–2.8 degrees Celsius.

Dig deeper, and the optimism fades:

– Current policies (what governments are actually doing right now) put us on a path to 2.8 degrees Celsius of warming – better than last year’s 3.1 degrees Celsius, but still catastrophic.