Indian steel exports have been struggling due to overcapacity and weak domestic demand in China, prompting the world’s second-largest economy to flood the global market with ultra-cheap steel. In May 2024, Indian steel exports were recorded at 0.5 million tonnes (MT), nearly 25% lower than the previous month. According to BigMint, a market research firm, export prices of hot-rolled coil from China fell to $520 per tonne, putting continued pressure on global steel prices. In contrast, Indian export prices remained higher, ranging from $650 to $660 per tonne.

China’s crude steel production saw a significant increase of 8.1% month-on-month in May, reaching 92.86 MT. This rise in production has led to a substantial increase in Chinese steel exports, which totaled 94 MT in 2023, a 38% increase over the previous year. This trend is expected to continue, potentially surpassing 100 MT in the current calendar year

India’s imports of finished steel reached 8.3 MT in fiscal 2024, marking a 38% increase year-on-year. Major contributors to this surge were China, South Korea, Japan, and Vietnam. Imports from Vietnam alone surged by 130% year-on-year, highlighting a significant shift in trade patterns. Despite a 11.5% increase in exports of finished steel, totaling approximately 7.5 MT, the rise was insufficient to counterbalance the growing volume of imports.

The European Union (EU), India’s largest export market for steel, presented a mixed scenario. Exports to the EU increased by 51% in fiscal 2024, contributing to 36% of India’s overall steel export basket. This rise came after a challenging first half of the fiscal year, where exports had declined, only to recover strongly in the latter half.